meditations

Technology Tip #1

One of the subjects this blog will address occasionally is useful pieces of technology I've encountered. I'm not a gadget freak by any means, but am always on the lookout for things which make life a little more enjoyable. Earlier I'd commented on getting a TiVo set up (not that I'm going to have time to watch all those shows that automatically record while I'm out of town). Now I want to mention a great new laptop worth taking a look at.

As soon as I got the consulting position, I knew my 5+ year old Windows 98 Compaq wasn't going to cut it. So I did some research, ran to a few stores, and just before heading out on the road picked up an eMachines M6805. This is (I think) the only 64 bit Windows laptop on the market. After four days of fairly heavy use I can say this is an excellent machine for the price (mine was $1350 after rebate). It's screaming fast, reasonably light, has loads of extras, and thanks to the 64 bit processor I hope to get a good 3-4 years of use before it becomes obsolete. Incidentally, Microsoft has a 64 bit version of Windows XP 2003 you can download for free (you have to register with them, and it's an unsupported product). I haven't installed it yet on this machine (want to get some further information from my MSFT friends before taking the plunge) but apparently it will make the machine even quicker.

One of my favorite aspects of the machine is the excellent keyboard. Usually it's all I can do to tolerate the keyboards on laptops (I'm famous for lugging a full-sized Dell keyboard with me to meetings where I have to take notes) but the eMachines laptop is close enough to full size, and with a soft enough action, that I can use it for long periods without risking RSI.

All in all, this machine is definitely worth a look if you're in the market, and a 64 bit machine is a particularly good investment if, like me, you tend to hold on to machines for more than a year or two.

Disclaimer: I have no connection with eMachines. Just a satisfied customer.

Paucity of Posts

My apologies for the recent dearth of posts (guess the implicit assumption there is that someone actually is reading and cares :) As good fortune would have it, an old friend from school contacted me with an urgent need for a high-tech consultant. 24 hours after we first spoke I was making plans for a week on the road, and I've been on my way, in a hotel room, or working every minute since. It's a tremendous opportunity, and if it turns into something longer term it will be for far better pay than I was seeing in Seattle. But it does mean a lot of time on the road, which will take some adapting.

Back in the early and mid-90s, I ran one of the first nationwide web projects and traveled about 75,000 miles a year. As I remember, the first 2-3 trips were absolute hell. I was disorganized, didn't have a good feel for what to pack, couldn't sleep well in hotels, etc. But human beings are amazingly adaptable, within a month or two I learned to keep certain things always packed, shortcuts to the airports, bought better luggage, and the travel became a normal part of life.

So it will be this time. I still have lots to say here, just have to incorporate the writing into the new rhythms of my life. This is the first night I've had the energy to make a post, and my goal is to do the same on every non-travel day.

The Elegance of Simplicity

Might it be that these folks are finally learning to play the game?

I've long been disappointed, if not outright critical, of the hyper-partisan left-wing of the democratic party. And when I say "long" I mean Loooooonnnnggg, going back to the loonies who thought George McGovern was a sensible candidate. It's this portion of the party that drove me to be a permanent independent.

Most of the time, MoveOn.org struck me as cut from this cloth: possibly right on the issues, but so strident and extreme they were never going to gain critical mass. But check out their latest campaign ad. It's one of the most powerful political ads I've ever seen, in large part because they don't yell or screech, they just let a senior member of the Clown Show hang himself.

It's a stunningly powerful ad. One which will go a long way to swerve undecideds and they should run it in every battleground state.

March Madness of a Different Kind

Some thoughts after seeing the first round of political ads:

It's shaping up to be a very strange political campaign, completely unlike anything before. While Rove, and before him Lee Atwater, are long time practitioners of the "slime and defend" strategy (particularly when the candidate is named Bush) it's never been practiced under these circumstances. This time they're running the campaign of a sitting president and are doing so at a point in the cycle which is unprecedented. One really has to wonder what is motivating these guys. While they have money to spend --- and there are few places extra cash burns a hole in your pocket faster than a political campaign --- they're running counter to almost every conventional wisdom of defending an incumbent.

By being so nakedly political, and so early, before most voters have formed their opinions, Rove et al. are risking, if not outright throwing away, their two biggest assets in this election: the power of incumbency and Bush's generally high marks for character which, deserved or not, are all he's got as his stands on almost every specific issue have polled poorly.

One has to wonder why the Republican machine is taking this approach. Whatever else you might think of them, these are exceptionally seasoned and disciplined political pros, armed to the teeth with devoted acolytes, lots of money and all the things that buys, in particular great IT and extensive polling. There are only three reasons I can think of:

1. It isn't really happening. It just seems that way to those of us who favor regime change. We live in a very divided country --- the only near precedent is the years before the Civil War, which is pretty scary... although any metaphor that would equate Shrub with Franklin Pierce has a certain attraction --- and Bush's message plays well in the red states and to his base nationally.
2. It's the law of unintended consequences from Bush/Cheney's fundraising orgy. They have the money, they want to spend it, and so every aspect of the campaign gets accelerated. That this particular administration is so out of touch only serves to increase their motivation here.
3. They're running scared and already have a sense of desperation.

Of course, these aren't mutually exclusive, but despite being a natural pessimist, I really think (3) is the driving factor. If you dig beneath the irrelevant "how does Bush match up with Kerry nationwide?" polls, there is a lot of evidence that in the real measures of the election Bush is not just behind, he's way behind. I'll be posting an analysis of the latest polls and the electoral vote consequences in a day or so. Come see what you think.

A Challenging Week

Not too much time for posting so far this week. A sudden web project was dropped in my lap, and I've been working on it pretty much around the clock for the last couple of days. It's finally completed, and I'll be posting a preliminary analysis of the 2004 election soon. But first, some more lighthearted thoughts:

To take a break from the drudgery of web page coding, I spent some time last night getting the TiVo box my sister gave me set up. Even thought it's only been a day (and one too busy for TV at that) I can already see this is going to be a big improvement in my lifestyle. The ability to skip over commercials, and to catch every episode of a classic TV series (I've always wanted to see, for example, the original Maverick) sort of turns the "500 channels but nothing's on" universe into a cornucopia of interesting programming.

Slight confusion on the talking points

Caught a few of the Sunday morning "talking heads" shows, and it seems the election campaign is starting in full force. Both sides were out with their talking points in hand, crisp, focused, to the point and on message.

But I'm a little confused: one Republican spinner after another said, "John Kerry is one of the most liberal members of government, a far leftist." Then they said, "John Kerry is a waffler, he's on both sides of every issue."

Sorry, but how can you be both "at the extreme" and "on both sides of every issue"? Isn't that sort of a contradiction in terms?

It Happens Every (17th) Spring

Interesting article today on MSNBC about the impending return of the 17 year cicadas. Apparently this year's brood, Brood X, is the largest of them all, stretching from Georgia all the way to Michigan and upstate NY.

Having spent my formative years in the mossy Pacific Northwest (and/or the elitist Ivy League northeast :) cicadas had never been more than a few lines in a book to me. But in 1990-1991 I did a post-doc in Cincinnati, and the second summer was marked by a major cicada eruption. It's a really remarkable experience, you could literally hear them driving down I-71 over the noise of traffic, and when I would bicycle out into the forested countryside the noise would be deafening.

If you haven't experienced this, well... by itself it's probably not worth a trip to the Midwest, but if you're going to be there for other reasons take a drive out into the country to get the full experience. It's like coming across a wild animal, or an iceberg, a direct experience that shows you how small and ephemeral we are in the face of nature's cycles.

The First Lark of Spring?

I'm a natural pessimist, and as an aficionado of economic policy, the last few years have given me lots to be pessimistic about. (With no intent at hyperbole, we are fully embarked on the worst fiscal path in the history of the republic.) But yesterday an event occurred, small but telling, which gave me genuine hope for the first time in a long while. It may, in fact, have been a very good day for me, for us, for our children and grandchildren. There are still obstacles to overcome, but the future suddenly seems sunnier.

I'm speaking of a small change added to the senate budget resolution which promises some fiscal sanity over the next few years. Basically, this amendment (proposed by Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, may the winds sing his praise!) puts the Senate on a "pay as you go" basis for the next five years for both expenditures and tax cuts! At last, some small evidence that the minority of DC grown-ups have grown tired of the clown show.

There are two very good post about this on Brad DeLong's excellent blog. The first discusses the language of the amendment, which states that any bill that would widen the deficit --- including the extension of the Bush tax cuts --- would require a supermajority of 60 votes. See also the comments to this post, which go into detail on why a seemingly internal Senate rule change was attached to a budget bill. (Short version: a procedural trick to keep the wingiest of the wing-nuts --- Do I see the Junior Senator from Oklahoma asking for the floor? --- from fillibustering the change.)

The second post, from a couple days earlier (and little remarked on at the time) comes via Max Sawicky and consists primarily of a chart contrasting the national debt as a percentage of GDP with or without extension of the Bush tax cuts. Even though these are only loose predictions, the difference is striking: if we extend the Bush cuts (and fix the AMT) then by 2013 it's estimated the federal debt will be over 50% of GDP! Without these changes by 2013 the ratio will fall, and will be down to just over 20% by 2013.

The amendment still has to survive the conference committee, but with fingers crossed, we may be turning off the road to disaster.

Willie Horton had other commitments

It's only March, and already it's pretty obvious we are going to have a long, ugly Presidential campaign. There are a lot of reasons to believe the White House is running scared (more on this soon) and it doesn't take a political genius to see this is going to play out a lot like the '88 campaign.

The administration can't run on jobs and can barely run on the economy: consumer confidence has tanked in the last couple months, so "morning in America" ads are likely to backfire and make Bush seem out of touch with people's worries. Moreover, they can't run on most other issues because Bush's positions have consistently polled terribly. Bush himself, his character and response to 9-11, have done well, but (1) those numbers have also fallen significantly and (2) running on character is a pretty weak strategy when you havea four year record to defend.

What then to do with that $100 million burning a hole in your pocket? Go Negative! Ryan Lizza gives a preview of the newest Bush campaign ad, which accuses Kerry of coddling terrorists, as depicted by a "swarthy, somewhat sinister-looking man with darting eyes." Some wags are already calling this the "Muhammad Horton" spot.

Prediction: Not having seen the ad yet, it's hard to be sure, but this seems likely to flop badly. The basic rule of television is that your audience becomes more sophisticated over time and harder to manipulate. Nixon's Checkers speech is stunningly naive by present day standards, and it's hard to believe many people who don't already have it in for Kerry will fall for this. 1988 was a long time ago.

If team Bush goes negative, they give up the high ground of incumbency and also endanger the one real ace in his hand, the generally high marks people give him personally. This is going to be very interesting, and very ugly.

Job losses continue, one by one

The administration had promised to create a "manufacturing czar" in the Commerce Department as a way of addressing the nation's ongoing loss of manufacturing jobs. But their candidate for the position, Tony Raimondo, has withdrawn from consideration because of criticism over his company outsourcing jobs to China.

Should be easy enough to predict Jon Stewart's take on this: "So that's one more job lost under Bush, bringing the total to 2.2 million + 1."

Actually, as Brad DeLong points out, this wasn't really a new position, but rather a renaming of an already existing position.

Most ironic in this particular act of the clown show is the good fortune of Raimondo, who now will not be put into a complete no-win position: poster child for the manufacturing jobs which have been and will continue to be lost. Wonder who they'll get to make that career ending move?